In Part I of our lessons learned from last year’s “New” NHL, we looked at the importance of special teams scoring, the role of fighters, the greater emphasis on rookies, how team scoring spreads out, and how good goalies stayed good but average goalies took a hit. We complete our list by starting with the offensive upside of the penalty kill.
6) Don’t Forget the Penalty Killers
Shorthanded Goals (SHG) were up over 22% last season, which makes sense if you think about the
increase in the number of power plays. And while the total still averages out to less than 10 SHG per
team, it does mean that there are extra SHGs to be had. Most teams employ the same PK unit on a
regular basis. Put a premium on the top scorers who penalty kill (e.g. Marian Hossa, Pavol Demitra,
Daniel Alfredsson) as their shorthanded chances have increased significantly. Correspondingly, the
scorers who don’t kill penalties (e.g. Naslund) may wind up with less ice time overall, and thus fewer
scoring opportunities.
7) The Death of the Shutout?
Last season only 6 goalies had 5 or more shutouts. This is in sharp contrast to 2003-04, when 14 managed
the same feat. Now you may say to yourself, “With increased scoring that makes sense.” But what
about this little tidbit: the top 3 goalies last year had 10, 7, and 7 shutouts whereas in 03-04 the top 3
had 11, 10 and 9. This just reinforces for us that top goalies will still put up great numbers, but the lesser
backstops won’t be able to hide behind the clutching and grabbing of their d-men any longer. This
lesson alone should force you to pick your goalies early.
8) Are PIMs Still a Valuable Fantasy Category?
Many fantasy leagues use Penalty Minutes (PIMs) as a category to add value to otherwise “fantasy challenged”
players. It’s not something we’ve ever advocated at Puckjunkie.com, and in the “New” NHL. PIMs are more irrelevant. In 2005-06, 15 of the top 25 scorers had 50 or more PIMs; in 2003-04 only 8
reached that same mark. To put it another way, 249 players had at least 60 PIMs last season compared
to only 208 in 03-04; that’s almost a 20% increase. But, while there were six 200+ PIM guys in 03-04
there were only three in 05-06. So what does this all mean? With all the obstruction penalties being
called, the PIM category is becoming watered down. The point all along was to reward people for
picking up non-stars or to add value to power forwards, but when guys like Sidney Crosby are picking
up 110 PIMs, are you really achieving your objective? If your league is going to keep PIMs maybe think
about scoring them in reverse (the Lady Byng category) where the highest PIM total equals the lowest
ranking in that category.
9) Plus Players
57 players in 2005-06 were a plus-15 or better compared to 69 in 2003-04. But interestingly, 21 players in 05-06 were a plus-25 or greater; only 10 had those totals in 03-04. So again, we see that the change in the rules has created some real separation and thus some real value. Put another way, the good plus/minus guys got better, but the average ones got worse. When drafting for this category, make sure you target the few who are really good.
10) The Schedule Matters
Many would argue that this has always been the case, that teams in the East have an advantage because of their shorter road trips and proximity to home. But that is mostly a playoff issue. With the Divisional and Conference focus of the new schedule, it is rare for a team to really be up against it due to the schedule maker. However, the intra-divisional aspect of the schedule is a HUGE factor. Each team plays each divisional opponent 8 times; that’s almost half a team’s games in its own division. So if you are Detroit, and you play a total of 24 games against Chicago, Columbus, and St. Louis, it isn’t surprising that you come away with 44 of a possible 48 points. If your league counts goalie wins and losses you can see the immediately increased value for a goalie on a good team in a bad division, and vice-versa. In very balanced divisions, goalies stats may suffer accordingly too, as there is a far greater likelihood of several split season series. Keep this in mind when drafting goalies (and to a lesser extent, for plus/minus).
Puckjunkie.com is the home of the revolutionary Puckjunkie Predictor, an interactive fantasy hockey cheatsheet that is simply the best tool to enable poolies to draft well and dominate their hockey pools and fantasy hockey leagues. In business since 2000, Puckjunkie Inc. also produces insights on fantasy hockey for subscribers, in syndicated editorial format, or via live radio interviews.
Copyright © Puckjunkie Inc. August 2006.
Opinions expressed on this page are those of Puckjunkie.com. About.com does not endorse and is not responsible for the content of this article.
