While it is extremely important for fantasy hockey owners to correctly predict which players will improve upon past performance---or at least regain previous form---in the coming season, it is also vital that fantasy owners be able to correctly gauge which players will be heading in the opposite direction.
Following is a list of 10 players whose fantasy hockey value is trending downwards this season, though that does not mean some of these players are not worthy of being on your team. This is more for owners to correctly assess the value of players so that you know what to expect production-wise in 2011-12.
1. Tim Thomas-G-Bruins
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This is not to say that Thomas will not have excellent fantasy hockey numbers this season, but the reigning Vezina Trophy winner will be hard-pressed to match his out-of-this-world statistics from a year ago---most notably his incredible .938 save percentage. In addition, there's a good chance that Tuukka Rask will spell the 37 year-old Thomas often so that he remains fresh following a long run to the Cup last spring. You still want Thomas on your fantasy squad, just don't expect him to exactly repeat his stats from 2010-11.
2. Loui Eriksson-RW-Stars
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The 26-year-old has registered 71 and 73 points the last two seasons and is a legit 25+ goal scorer. However he no longer has Brad Richards, the elite playmaker, setting him up, and it's hard to imagine Mike Ribeiro or Vernon Fiddler adequately filling Richard's skates. Eriksson will have a solid season, but look for a ten-point drop in production playing without Richards.
3. Sergei Bobrovsky-G-Flyers
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The toast of Philadelphia as a 22 year-old rookie in 2010-11, Bobrovsky appeared in 54 games and earned 28 wins a year ago. However, with the arrival of a new No. 1 goalie in Ilya Bryzgalov, Bobrovsky likely will play fewer than half the amount of games he did as a rookie. This is a no-brainer. Consider drafting Bryzgalov, but not Bobrovsky.
4. Teemu Selanne-RW-Ducks
Coming off knee surgery this summer, Selanne is still undecided as to whether or not he will play this season. But even if he does play, Selanne is 41 years old and I just can not see him duplicating his terrific 80-point season of a year ago, nor coming near the 73 games he played in 2010-11. He will always give fantasy owners solid goal totals and power play numbers, but expect all of his numbers to trend downward if he decides to play this season.
5. Dustin Byfuglien-D-Jets
Byfuglien has big, red-warning flags all over him this season. He will be a popular early-round pick in many fantasy hockey drafts based on his career-high 53 points in 2010-11, but only 13 of those points were recorded in the season's second half. Add to that he reportedly has gained more than 30 pounds this summer and, well, big, red-warning flags. He is still worthy of a fantasy pick (especially when also considering his PIM totals), just not in the upper rounds of your draft.
6. P.A. Parenteau-RW-Islanders
A popular free agent/waiver wire pick-up in fantasy hockey leagues a year ago, Parenteau notched a career-high 53 points, mainly skating on the top line with John Tavares. However with Kyle Okposo again healthy, and Nino Niederreiter ready to join the NHL, Parenteau's ice-time---including his power play time---will diminish, and so will his offensive numbers.
7. Michal Neuvirth-G-Capitals
Neuvirth's case is similar to that of Bobrovsky. A veteran goalie---in this case, Tomas Vokoun---has been brought in to take over the No. 1 role. As such, the 23 year-old Neuvirth will see his games played drastically cut from the 48 he appeared in last season. Don't expect another 27-win season this year from Neuvirth, and instead make Vokoun the goalie from Washington you target on draft day.
8. Brent Seabrook-D-Blackhawks
A rock-solid defender, the 26 year-old Seabrook recorded a career-best 48 points last season. However instead of projecting Seabrook to continue trending up, I expect the opposite as his numbers will more reflect his role as shutdown defenseman. I could see a ten-point drop in his point total---roughly 20%---so draft accordingly this season.
9. Clarke MacArthur-C/LW-Maple Leafs
One of the true feel-good stories in the NHL---and for lucky fantasy hockey owners---in 2010-11, MacArthur netted 21 goals and totaled 62 points, both career-highs. However his 27-point jump from his previous career-best scares me. MacArthur could be a player just figuring it out at age 26 or it could have been a lightning-in-the-bottle season for him. I think it's the latter and expect a 15 point or so drop-off in his production this year.
10. Lubomir Visnovsky-D-Ducks
After leading all NHL defensemen with 68 points last season, Visnovsky is sure to be a high-round selection in many fantasy hockey drafts this fall. Though I expect his numbers to still be good---especially playing with the likes of Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan on the power play---I can not see the 35-year-old Visnovsky being in the same ballpark production-wise this season. Not dissimilar from Thomas: you still want Visnovsky, but be aware to value him accordingly.