You think you have it all figured out from a fantasy hockey point of view until you don't.
Because in the end, no matter all your research and study of players throughout the season, reality can step in without notice and skew your whole equation, whether it is because of injury---or has been the case quite a bit of late---or change of locale and team.
The recent spate of trades in the National Hockey League preceding next Monday's official trading deadline has been intriguing from a fantasy hockey perspective, in particular recent deals made between the Blues and Avalanche, and the Penguins and Stars, because none of the so-called "experts" envisioned players like Chris Stewart and Erik Johnson, and James Neal and Alex Goligoski, being dealt.
Let's take a fantasy hockey look at the Blues-Avs trade and the deal between Pittsburgh and Dallas.
Blues trade defenseman Erik Johnson and forward Jay McClement to the Avalanche for forward Chris Stewart and defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk
There were draft picks included both ways in this deal, but that's not of importance to fantasy hockey owners. In my recent mid-season plus/minus reports for each team, I selected Johnson as the Blues' minus player from a fantasy hockey perspective and Shattenkirk as the Avs' plus player. Johnson may benefit the most of all the players involved in this trade because, plain and simle, he is pissed that St. Louis dealt him. This trade may have awoken a sleeping giant, who was mired in a sub-par season. After scoring ten goals and 39 points, to go along with 78 penalty minutes a year ago, Johnson was just 5-14-19 with 39 PIM in 55 games with the Blues before the trade. His ice-time was also beginning to decrease in St. Louis. That will change in Colorado where Johnson will be a top-pair defenseman, as his 26-minute debut with the Avs already shows. Motivation will go a long way here, and I think Johnson's game---and fantasy hockey numbers---will improve because of that. As for Stewart and Shattenkirk, they both join a Blues team that has a decent array of young skilled players, and they will fit in quite nicely. However I can't see a huge uptick in either's production because both players were already in the midst of good seasons. Stewart, who has spent 20 games on the sidelines due to injury, has 15 goals, 32 points, and 38 PIM in 38 games, and he scored twice in his Blues debut over the weekend. Shattenkirk is 7-20-27 in 48 games, and is the league's 11th leading scorer amongst rookies. Expect both Stewart and Shattenkirk to continue along the same lines of production. In his role as a more defensive-minded forward, McClement does not have much fantasy value with his 6-10-16 numbers and one power play goal.
Stars trade forward James Neal and defenseman Matt Niskanen to the Penguins for defenseman Alex Goligoski
Like the Blues-Avs trade this deal really shocked a lot of hockey insiders, partly because it was so unexpected. In fact 24 hours later this trade was still the talk of the morning skate I attended in Raleigh today where the Hurricanes host the Rangers later on. Neal is going to be a great fit in Pittsburgh, I think. He should shoot straight to the No. 1 line with Jordan Staal right now, and should play alongside Sidney Crosby when/if he returns this season from his concussion. I love Neal as a Penguin in a keeper league, too. A 27-goal scorer a year ago, this 23 year-old could really fluorish when Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Chris Kunitz are all healthy. 35 goals and 70 points are not out of the question for Neal down the road playing with this kind of talent. Neal will also pick up some penalty minutes (60 so far this year) and record quite a few power play points, further boosting his fantasy hockey value. As for Goligoski, I am a bit surprised with the number of hockey people running him and his value down. He is no superstar, but Goligoski is a fairly solid fantasy hockey defenseman. This year he already has a career-high 9 goals, and his 31 points are just six shy of equaling his career-best set a year ago. He also is a +20 on the plus/minus end, and should benefit greatly being given even more responsibility in Dallas. With the Pens deep defense corps Goligoski was one of several solid d-men. In Dallas he will be a top-pair guy, receiving top-pair minutes, and should quarterback the Stars power play. In the end, look for his fantasy value to remain just about the same as it is now. As for Niskanen, his value is minimal to fantasy hockey owners.
Send your fantasy hockey questions and comments to Jim at jimcerny@gmail.com; and look for this week's Fantasy Hockey Mailbag!