Today marks the debut of our new weekly Fantasy Hockey Mailbag feature, where you get to share the spotlight!
Question from John in Halifax, NS:
I'm in a keeper league that records just goals and assists. So all I care about is whether a guy can put up points. With that in mind, should I hang on to Phil Kessel or consider dumping him for a younger guy like James van Riemsdyk? Kessel is still young, and 30-goal guys don't grow on trees. But his production has declined since he scored 36 in 2008-09. What does the future hold for Kessel? Can he be a regular 35-40 goal scorer?
Jim's Answer:
Really good question, John. I'd have to go with keeping Kessel because, even though he plays on a lousy team and just endured a painfully-long goal-scoring drought, he is a sniper. Pure and simple. Whether he plays on a good team or bad, he is going to crank up four-to-five shots a game, and when the season is done he should be at 30 goals minimum. I know his numbers have fallen off a bit the last two years in Toronto after his 36-goal breakthrough in Boston, but he is only 23 years old and already has 117 goals in 349 career games. I still think he has 40-goal potential, but a consistant 30 is not such a bad thing, either. Van Riemsdyk is going to have a nice-career, and he certainly plays on a much better team. But I think his upside is more in the 25-goal-per-year range, and that is still down the road. The 21 year old had 15 as a rookie last year and has 13, after scoring last night, this season. Van Riemsdyk is the better all-around player, but Kessel is the better goal scorer and point-producer and that's all you care about in your league.
Question from Michael in Philadelphia, PA:
I'm a big Flyers fan and am psyched we just got (Kris) Versteeg. I think he will help out the team a lot and agree with your story yesterday that his fantasy value is now on the rise. My question is: who do you think will lose playing time with Versteeg now on the team?
Jim's Answer:
Michael, I like this question a lot because it's easy to overlook which player or players lose ice-time and perhaps have their fantasy hockey values diminished when another player is picked up in a trade, as is the case in Philly with Versteeg. I think you began to get your answer last night when Versteeg played 17 minutes against the Lightning, comparable to the other forwards that played on the top three lines. However, the big loser here was Nikolay Zherdev, who was scratched to make room for Versteeg. Though he has 15 goals (though only four assists) on the season, and has produced three 20+goal and 50+point seasons in the NHL, Zherdev has never been considered a "winning" hockey player, the exact opposite of Versteeg. With the Flyers holding serious Stanley Cup aspirations, I would suspect that Zherdev will be the odd man out of this mix, and possibly trade-bait. If he is a regular scratch, his fantasy hockey value will be nill. However if he is traded elsewhere, Zherdev will retain some fantasy hockey value as a secondary goal scorer.
Question from Todd in Ontario:
Jim, I really enjoyed your breakdowns of all the trades that have been taking place the last couple of weeks. But I never saw you write anything about Joffrey Lupul going to the Maple Leafs. Do you think he would be a good late-season pick-up because he is still a free agent in my league? And my friend wants to know, since he'll be getting more playing time in Toronto, if Lupul is a candidate to stick for his keeper league team?
Jim's Answer:
First and formost, Lupul has to get himself 100% healthy again. That back injury basically has wiped out most of last year and this one, too, for the former first-round pick. To answer the second question first, no, Lupul is not a keeper. Too much of a risk, and, really, not enough reward, either. He's a three-time 20-goal scorer, two-time 50-point guy coming off major back woes. At his best---if he can reach that again---Lupul is a solid 25-goal scorer---and there is no guarentee he will ever be that player again. And should you rush out to claim Lupul off the waiver wire now? I'd say be cautious, monitor his play, and then make your decision. He did have two assists last night while playing 17 minutes for the Leafs. But my hunch is that there will be other more attractive players on your league's waiver wire.
Keep the fantasy hockey questions and comments coming! E-mail Jim at jimcerny@gmail.com.