While most teams headed into the summer of 2011 set with their goaltending, there were still a few teams that made moves involving some big-time names. And these moves need to be analyzed for how they can affect the drafting/planning strategy of fantasy hockey owners next season.
So let's look at the bigger names that switched teams and assess their fantasy hockey value in their new locales.
- Ilya Bryzgalov (Flyers): Philly moved heaven and earth, figuratively, and nearly literally, to sign Bryzgalov after acquiring his rights from the Coyotes before he became an UFA on July 1. Paul Holmgren changed the look of his team drastically by dealing away both Jeff Carter and team captain Mike Richards in order to free up enough funds to finally secure this long-sought and much-needed top-flight goalie. The question is: has Bryzgalov's fantasy value changed all that much? The answer is no, not all that much. His last two years in Phoenix, Bryzgalov appeared in 69 and 68 games respectively, winning 42 and 36 for a club that reached the playoffs each season. In Philly Bryzgalov will be playing for another playoff-caliber team, one that is a touch better than Phoenix, and likely will be appearing in 65 games or so with Sergei Bobrovsky providing solid back up in goal. How that changes his stats from a fantasy hockey point of view is negligible. His numbers will remain excellent. Fantasy Value: Unchanged. He remains one of the league's top fantasy hockey goalies.
- Tomas Vokoun (Capitals): Probably---and shockingly---the best value of any free agent signed this off-season. Vokoun is a steal for one year at $1.5 million. And his move from Florida to Washington boosts his fantasy hockey value quite a bit. Moving from a perennial losing team to an Eastern Conference powerhouse could mean as many as between 10-15 more wins---and perhaps more---to Vokoun, who---even at age 35---is a quality goaltender in this league. So where Vokoun used to fall in fantasy hockey drafts because he played for a weak team, hurting his win totals and goals against average among other fantasy stats, now his value will be much higher. Look for Vokoun to play around 62 games, with Michal Neuvirth getting 20 starts or so, with a goals against falling into the 2.25-2.30 range with a more solid defense in front of him. Fantasy Value: On the Rise. He will be among the second tier of top goalies selected in fantasy hockey drafts this year.
- Semyon Varlamov/J.S. Giguere (Avalanche): After Craig Anderson flamed out and was traded last year, Colorado needed to upgrade their goaltending, which they did by acquiring the 23 year-old Varlamov and the veteran Giguere. If he can stay healthy and consistent---two big ifs---Varlamov will have the better fantasy hockey value of the two because he will see the bulk of the work in goal---50 appearances sounds about right, more if he really grabs ahold of the No. 1 job, something he was incapable of doing in Washington. However he would best be a later round pick in fantasy hockey drafts because, quite simply, the Avs are not that good (see Vokoun, Tomas when he was in Florida). As for Giguere, he could be a third goalie on your fantasy hockey roster---if you carry three goalies---but should be more or less a fantasy afterthought because he likely will not play enough to make a difference, he will be on a poor team, and his play has headed in a southern direction the last few years. Fantasy Value: Varlamov better than Giguere. Understand the situation and do not pick Varlamov too high in your fantasy hockey draft.
- Mike Smith (Coyotes): Plain and simple, stay away. Smith will have the chance to replace Bryzgalov in Phoenix---he will battle vets Jason LaBarbara and Curtis McElhinney---but he has never proven to be even a decent fantasy hockey goalie, not to mention No. 1 NHL goalie. With goals against averages hovering around three goals a game, and save percentages routinely, barely cracking .900, there are much better options for your fantasy hockey team than Mike Smith. Fantasy Value: Unchanged. Stay Away!
- Jose Theodore (Panthers): This is a leap of faith on the Panthers' part giving Theodore a chance to win the No. 1 job between the pipes. Theodore has had one sub. 2.70 goals against average over the past seven seasons while playing for four different teams. I see one of three things happening in Florida this year, none of them good for Theodore's fantasy hockey value: 1) he is the No. 1 goalie and puts up his usual average statistics, 2) he loses No. 1 battle to Scott Clemmensen and plays 30 or fewer games, 3) goalie-of-the future Jacob Markstrom wins the No. 1 job and Theodore is left to battle Clemmensen for back-up duty. Fantasy Value: Slightly higher. But still stay away!
Send your fantasy hockey questions and comments to jimcerny@gmail.com.