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Dateline: June 19/02

If you want to see how this year's NHL draft turns out for your favourite team, check back in 2009.

Unless your hobby is tracking the fortunes of teenage hockey players, don't spend a lot of time dissecting the list of names that emerges on Saturday and Sunday. Most of those 18 and 19-year-olds won't realize whatever potential they have for another five to ten years. The majority will never play an NHL game and even the most highly regarded come with no guarantees. An NHL executive once said that drafting future NHL players is not unlike going into a high school science class and trying to pick the doctors.

A few prize talents go from the draft table to the NHL without missing a beat. Recent examples include Ilya Kovalchuk in Atlanta (last year's top pick) and Simon Gagne in Philadelphia (number 22 overall in 1998). But Vincent Lecavalier of Tampa Bay (number one, 1998) and Vancouver's Daniel and Henrik Sedin (numbers two and three in 1999) are among the many teenage hotshots who have struggled in the big leagues. Most draftees, from stars to pluggers, need more experience in amateur or minor pro hockey before easing into the NHL.

Patience is one of the keys to building an NHL career. Atlanta's Dany Heatley, who will likely be named this season's rookie of the year, was closing in on his 22nd birthday when he debuted with the Thrashers last fall. Jose Theodore, the Montreal Canadiens' star goalie, spent the better part of three seasons in the American Hockey League before joining the Habs full time.

Just about everyone seems to agree that this year's draft is a weak one, with about 12 or 15 prospects projected as solid NHL players. Jay Bouwmeester, a defenseman, leads the list. Scouts have raved about his skating and command of the ice since he was 14, but he has yet to develop into the offensive powerhouse many expected. Bouwmeester is also very shy, a potential problem for a guy who will find microphones and high expectations wherever he plays.

Entry drafts past are littered with high profile disappointments - Alexandre Daigle, number one in 1993, is among the most famous busts. But there are also pleasant surprises, like Dominik Hasek (number 207, 1983). Teams also know it takes more than superstars to build a winner and would be thrilled with a late pick who turns into the next Tomas Holmstrom (number 257, 1994) or Gary Valk (number 108, 1987).

Of course, drafting is only part of the action on draft day. Put 30 NHL general managers in one room and the trade talk starts like spontaneous combustion. The Tampa Bay Lightning say they will trade the number four pick for a player who can help them right away. The first trade can create a domino effect, so look for a few deals during Saturday's opening round.

That means two stories will play out at Toronto's Air Canada Centre this weekend. The 30 teams will take their turns at the podium, selecting players and fitting them with hats and jerseys, everybody glowing with dreams of glory and victory in 2007 or 2010. In the meantime, some of those teams will work the cell phones and barter in the corridors, looking for the guy who can help those dreams come true next year.

2002 NHL Entry Draft: The Complete List