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Complete NHL 2002-2003 Team-by-Team Forecast
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• Part 1: Cannon Fodder
Penguins, Flames, Sabres, Wild, Panthers...
• Part 2: On the Border
Ducks, Blackhawks, Habs...
• Part 3: Playoff Prospects
Devils, Islanders, Leafs, Kings...
• Part 4: The NHL Elite
Avalanche, Wings, Sharks, Caps...
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"The Thrashers should be much stronger this year. They have the best young talent in the NHL and picked up some key veterens in the offseason. "
Edwin69
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How close was the NHL last season? At the end of the regular schedule, just 11 points seperated second-place overall (Boston) from 17th (Dallas). It could be even tighter this year, especially in the Western Conference.
In a league where a couple of three-game losing streaks might mean the difference between winning the conference and missing the playoffs, it seems pointless to make predictions in September. Instead, we've grouped the teams according to their relative chances of making the playoffs next spring. This week we focus on the bottom half of the league. Next week the NHL 2002-2003 season preview concludes with a look at the elite, including the teams that have a legitimate shot at the Stanley Cup.
Cannon Fodder
These teams can only dream of that faraway land called the Stanley Cup playoffs. They hope to get there someday. For now, it's once more into the breach.
Atlanta Thrashers
Team If. If last year's leading men, Kovalchuk and Heatley, produce a great sequel... If Patrick Stefan finally pulls his weight... If incoming vets like Slava Kozlov, Shawn McEachern, Uwe Krupp and Richard Smehlik resuscitate waning careers... If Milan Hnilicka is the goalie they've been waiting for… They might move forwards instead of backwards.
Best case scenario: The defense finally rises above minor league status.
Worst case scenario: The young guys plateau, the old guys keep slipping.
Worth watching: Dany Heatley might be a future captain, but Ilya Kovalchuk, still only 19, is a future King of the Highlight Reel.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Last year's Jackets might not have been a contender in the AHL, let alone the NHL. So they jettisoned half the defense and retooled the offense. Andrew Cassels provides a significant upgrade at centre. Rick Nash, the top draft pick, will make the team. Young Marc Denis is the new starting goalie. All this activity should net them a few more wins. But even a big improvement over last season could still leave Columbus in last place.
Best case scenario: Denis claims a place among the next generation of great goalies.
Worst case scenario: The new defense is just a different combination of trainees and retreads.
Worth watching: Rostislav Klesla is one of the most talked about young defensemen in hockey. He's 20 years old and said to be well ahead of where several current stars were at that age.
Florida Panthers
Of all the lousy NHL teams, the Panthers have the most impressive circle of prodigies. This year they'll carry as many as 10 or 12 players under the age of 24, the makings of what could be a formidable lineup in five years. Coach Mike Keenan may not seem like the nurturing type, but Philadelphia was the youngest team in the NHL when he took them to the finals in 1987. That won't happen here. But names like Luongo, Weiss, Hagman and Bouwmeester will soon make Pavel Bure a distant memory.
Best case scenario: The youth movement accelerates under Keenan's watch.
Worst case scenario: The media has a field day with a series of Coach versus Veteran spitting matches.
Worth watching: Roberto Luongo still looks like a future Vezina Trophy winner. The Panthers' progress will mirror his.
Minnesota Wild
If the NHL is serious about curbing interference, Minnesota could be in trouble. Coach Jacques Lemaire is the evil genius of congested, close-checking, snail's-pace hockey (his '95 Devils are widely considered the most boring Stanley Cup champions in recent history). In any case, the Wild obviously aren't expecting great things for another few years. The addition of Cliff Ronning, who always plays well for bad teams, should help them score. But Minnesota is yet another team with plenty of "future" and very little "right now." Especially on defense.
Best case scenario: The power play, which was pretty good last season, catches fire again.
Worst case scenario: Last year was as good as goaltender Manny Fernandez can play.
Worth watching: Playing in a defense-first environment, Marian Gaborik scored 30 goals. He will challenge for a scoring title some day soon.
Nashville Predators
Like Columbus and Atlanta, Nashville regressed last year, not an encouraging sign for a bottom-rung team trying to sell a bright future. Bad injury luck, including what appeared to be a concussion epidemic, didn't help. Another disappearing act by red-tag prospect David Legwand didn't help either. Like their recent expansion peers, the Predators are a team of futures and discards. They appear to be on the right path, but they might be the least experienced team in the NHL this year, so a memorable season is hard to imagine.
Best case scenario: The goalies improve and the best players take fewer whacks in the head.
Worst case scenario: The small core of quality young scorers can't take the next step forward.
Worth watching: Take your pick. Scott Hartnell and Denis Arkhipov are young, big and skilled, and combined for 34 goals on a pretty bad team.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Not as well stocked for the future as its Florida rival, but Tampa already has one genuine star: Goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin deserves credit for what little success the Lightning had last year. They don't score much and the defense is not NHL calibre, so Khabibulin sees a ton of shots. (He says he enjoys playing in Tampa, which makes you wonder if he's taking too many pucks in the head.) If his team mates could generate a little momentum this year, he might even have them sniffing around the playoff race for a while. He cannot afford a slump.
Best case scenario: Vincent Lecavalier sheds the "problem child" label and starts paying the rent. 60 points is not too much to ask.
Worst case scenario: The defense can't give the goalie a little - just a little - more help.
Worth watching : While Lecavalier back pedals, his friend Brad Richards shows Tampa fans what emerging offensive authority looks like.
Hoping Against Hope
Sometimes, it all just comes together. The lines click, the goalie shines, the injury gods are busy elsewhere. For a few teams, it's the only hope they have of playing hockey in April.
Buffalo Sabres
They could rally 'round the flag and surprise everyone. But the Sabres are suffering from a bad case of the small-market, frozen-budget, owner-was-taken-away-in-handcuffs blues. The big problem is a feeble attack: Miroslav Satan can score, but otherwise hope rests with career underachievers and raw talent like Tim Connolly and Taylor Pyatt. Connolly, a skill centre, looks like the real deal. Buffalo also has good goaltending and several reliable defensemen. So you never know.
Best case scenario: Connolly has a breakthrough season.
Worst case scenario: Defensemen Jay McKee or Rhett Warrener get injured.
Worth watching: With a couple of other goaltending hotshots looming in his rear view mirror, Martin Biron should have no trouble staying motivated. If he gets on a roll he could carry this team a ways.
Calgary Flames
They can't expect more from Jarome Iginla and Craig Conroy, so who else can chip in a few goals? If Chris Drury isn't the answer, the Flames are in trouble. They paid dearly to pry Drury from Colorado - Derek Morris might be an all star in a few years. But if the Flames don't start winning they won't be around in a few years, so the deal had to be made. Can Drury score without Peter Forsberg at his side? How does the defense hold up without 25 minutes per game from Morris? Is goaltender Roman Turek ready for the barage?
Best case scenario: An underachiever (Marc Savard), a rookie (Chuck Kobasew) and a pair of veterans (Drury and Martin Gelinas) add enough offense to overcome the inexperience on defense.
Worst case scenario: Iginla and Conroy have to do it all again. Turek buckles.
Worth watching: Who else? Some say Jarome Iginla should not be among the game's best-paid players after just one scoring title. But he's been building to it for a long time and will be an MVP candidate for years to come.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Anyone who cares about hockey would dearly love to see Mario reach his goal of 75 games played this season. But recent history suggests it's a long shot. If Lemieux's 37-year-old body gives out again, the Penguins are done. To make matters worse, Martin Straka is coming off another injury and Alexei Kovalev, in the final year of his contract, might be too expensive to retain. The defense looks thin as well. Pittsburgh is another typical low-revenue team, trying desperately to hang on to its stars while praying that the kids grow up quick.
Best case scenario: If Lemieux, Straka and Kovalev play 60 or 65 games apiece, they might drag the Penguins into the playoffs on talent alone.
Worst case scenario: "Mario Lemieux will sit out tonight's game with a reported lower back strain…"
Worth watching: Who else? The Penguins' owner can skip practice, miss a bunch of games, return to the lineup with an aching back and play at half-speed… and still bend the game to his will.
Next page > On the Border > Page 1, 2, 3, 4
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