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2004 Stanley Cup Playoffs: The First Round Forecast

Eastern Conference contenders chase the 2004 Stanley Cup

By Jamie Fitzpatrick, About.com

(3) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (6) New Jersey Devils

The Flyers lost just two of six games against New Jersey this season, and are the deeper team at forward and defense. But they finished without much flair, with even the number-two ranked power play struggling in the last couple of weeks. Are vital players like Keith Primeau, Jeremy Roenick and Eric Desjardins back up to speed after lengthy injury layoffs?

Health: D Eric Desjardins (arm) is out for the season. D Denis Seidenberg (leg) won't play.

Trouble: The penalty killing deteriorated as the season progressed.

The Devils have a great line – Elias, Gomez, Gionta – a great defenseman – Niedermayer – and a great goalie. Is it enough? With a dedicated supporting cast, it was enough to make them the NHL’s best defensive team this season. But the supporting cast did not score much, and New Jersey often had trouble winning key games.

Health: D Scott Stevens (post-concussion) probably won’t play. RW Grant Marshall (hand) won't play. LW Eric Rasmussen (leg) is day-to-day. D Brian Rafalski (leg) returned for the last regular season game.

Trouble: Stevens leaves a huge hole on defense, where two rookies are among the Devils’ top five.

The Goalies: With Martin Brodeur, the Devils have an obvious advantage no matter who they’re playing. The Flyers’ Robert Esche looked great in January and February, not so great in March and April. Sean Burke finished strong, so Esche may be on a short leash.

The Forecast: It’s the usual for the Devils – minimize chances, count on Brodeur and wait for a scoring hero. Forwards Jay Pandolfo and John Madden are key: they shut down opposing scorers. The Flyers have scored their share against Brodeur this year, so they won’t be thrown off their game by great saves. Unless he starts putting up shutouts.

The Pick: History shows the Devils either flameout early or go to the Stanley Cup Final. They aren’t going to the final this year. Philadelphia in Six.

(4) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. (5) Ottawa Senators

The Maple Leafs ice their best forward group in a decade, so Sundin and Mogilny don’t have to carry the load anymore. With Brian Leetch, they might have the best postseason power play. The defensive cave-ins have disappeared lately (just four goals against in their last five games). But the Leafs are also old, and tend to get beat up.

Health: RW Owen Nolan (knee) won’t play. LW Darcy Tucker (groin) might. D Ken Klee (shoulder) says he’s ready. D Wade Belak is suspended until game three.

Trouble: The Leafs take more penalties and allowed more power play goals than any other NHL team.

The Senators led the league in goals again, though they often looked vulnerable. They can’t match Toronto in experience or belligerence, but have superior skill at forward and defense. Ottawa is zero-for-three in playoff meetings against Toronto, so calling this the biggest series in franchise history might not be a stretch.

Health: G Patrick Lalime (knee) is practicing and will likely play. C Jason Spezza (lower body) is skating by himself and hopes to play.

Trouble: Ottawa is a bad faceoff team, going up against a couple of masters in Ron Francis and Nieuwendyk.

The Goalies: Behind Florida’s Roberto Luongo, Toronto’s Ed Belfour is the best in the East this year. But if his bad back acts up, it’s over. Ottawa’s Patrick Lalime sprinkled poor games throughout an otherwise decent season. He also has a sore knee. Backup Martin Prusek has been good and bad.

The Forecast: If this turns into the series many fans relish – hockey players knocking the daylights out of each other – Ottawa will lose in a hurry. The Senators succeed with a patient game that sets up displays of their skill. Both teams are great on the power play and so-so on the penalty kill, so officiating standards - and the players' awareness of them - will be key.

The Pick: Toronto has the qualities you want in a playoff team. But when it comes to Leafs-Senators, sometimes its best to go with the counterintuitive pick. Ottawa in Seven.

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