The Lightning are a fast, playmaking team that surprised everyone by finishing first. So they are tailor-made to crap out in the first round. Can they avoid the obvious upset? Only if Martin St. Louis (at 5’-9” and 181 lbs., the tiniest scoring champion since Stan Mikita), Vincent Lecavlier and other dipsy-doodlers can find the net when the hacking, whacking and trapping begin in earnest.
Health: Tampa has had almost miraculous luck in this area, with no significant injuries all year.
Trouble: The Lightning lost three of four games against the Islanders this season.
The Islanders, while nobody was looking, scored almost as many goals (237) as the celebrated Lightning (245). They look awful at times, but in their good games they resemble a serious playoff team: hungry and surly. Whether the defense can shut down a good opponent four times in seven nights is another question.
Health: LW Jason Blake (ankle) won’t play. C Shawn Bates (groin) is day-to-day. G Garth Snow (groin) won’t play.
Trouble: Alexei Yashin has been quiet since returning from an injury, which suggests another quiet postseason.
The Goalies: The Lightning have two reliable options: if Nikolai Khabibulin falters, John Grahame steps in. At 22, the Islanders' Rick Dipietro is an emerging star who improved as the year went on. He has almost no playoff experience.
The Forecast: If Tampa Bay falters early it will get very interesting. But the timing is not good for the Islanders. Losing Blake hurts, and rookie scorer Trent Hunter tailed off in recent weeks. It will take a big Dipietro effort and a new scoring hero to stop Tampa.
The Pick: The Lightning can be had, but the Islanders are not the team for the job. Tampa Bay in Six.
(2) Boston Bruins vs. (7) Montreal Canadiens
The Bruins will barely acknowledge Joe Thornton’s injury. Wrist or ribs? They’re not saying. The remaining forwards are solid (Knuble, Rolston) and occasionally spectacular (Murray, Bergeron). Steady goaltending goes a long way towards steadying the defense, which allowed the Bruins to add a puck-rushing gambler, Sergei Gonchar. Since shaking off a December slump, Boston matches Tampa as the East’s most consistent team. They don't blow leads and are the NHL's best road team.
Health: The prognosis for Thornton (upper body) is a closely guarded secret.
Trouble: The consequences of having Thornton in the press box cannot be overstated. Michael Nylander is no substitute.
The Canadiens improved by 16 points with mostly the same cast that missed the playoffs last year. They became a tough opponent (as evidenced by a series of close, low-scoring games against the Bruins) and even revived a little of the old Habs flair, with a breakout season by Mike Ribiero and a big rookie year from Michael Ryder. But they still go through scoring droughts and have to play disciplined defense to beat most teams.
Health: The Canadiens are hale.
Trouble: Occasional scoring star Alexei Kovalev has tanked since arriving from New York. A little scoring spree might have pulled the team from a late-season slump.
The Goalies: The best goaltending matchup of the first round. Montreal’s Jose Theodore is the somewhat inconsistent star. Boston’s Andrew Raycroft is the likely rookie of the year. Only Theodore has playoff experience, and that isn’t much: a 7-8 career record.
The Forecast: A few weeks’ ago, Montreal looked like a team nobody wanted to face, forcing opponents to earn every rush and every shot. Now they look a little worn out. The Canadiens are faster, the Bruins are bigger. But even without Thornton, Boston has more scoring potential. More than any other first-round series, this one is down to the goalies.
The Pick: If Raycroft doesn’t suffer a rookie meltdown, Boston in Five.
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