Beware the Breakout
Every fall, any number of players are said to be due for "breakthrough" seasons. These seasons do happen - usually to players in their fourth or fifth years, occasionally to exceptional talents at a younger age. But it doesn't happen as often as fantasy players would like. In the early draft rounds, let someone else take a flyer on the young hotshot who is "primed to break through." Sure, one of them might explode and make your rival look like a genius, but it's a high-risk play. Use top picks for mature players.
Curb Your Optimism
Speaking of breakthroughs, they are not always as dramatic as people hope. A guy like Eric Staal, who jumped from 31 points to 101 points in a single season, is very rare. For most others, a 10 or 15-point improvement over the previous career-best is a big move. The same goes for a player recovering from injury, coming off a great playoff performance, or joining talented new linemates. He might take a step forward, but don't bank on a huge leap. It's tempting to buy into best-case scenarios. Keep your expectations realistic.
It's the Numbers, Not the Name
The best player is not always the best pick. In the real world, an NHL star brings more to the rink than scoring. Defense, toughness, experience - any number of qualities figure into his value. But in most fantasy hockey leagues none of that stuff matters. We want points. The toughest, meanest defenseman in hockey is a prime catch for any NHL team. But a fantasy player is better off picking a small, one-dimensional guy who gets lots of time on the power play.
Beware the September Sensations
While reading a training camp report on your favorite team, you discover that Elmer Windsock, an obscure minor-leaguer, is practicing on the top line! If he keeps the job he could put up 50 points this year! Relax. Almost every team uses training camp and the early days of the season to experiment and check out minor leaguers and rookies. By all means, keep track of training camp happenings, but don't put too much stock in what you read. Elmer will likely be back in the minors by Halloween.
Know Your Risk Tolerance
Given the choice between the high-risk/high-reward concussion case and the guy who quietly puts up 45 points a year, the smart fantasy player will go with Mr. Reliable every time. Maybe you don't agree, and prefer to take more chances. The point is, try to determine how adventurous you're willing to be and stick with it.
Think Stability
You've been working on your picks all day, fatigue is setting in and all those 25-point guys are starting to look the same. Wake up! This is where a fantasy hockey league can be won or lost! At this stage, try to pick a player in his late-20s or early-30s, playing for the same team and same coach as last season. Veterans who have settled into well-defined roles are a good bet for reliable production year after year.
Bonus Tip
This is a crapshoot, not a science. Do the homework, then relax and enjoy. Open a beer. Take a couple of guys you enjoy watching. Use your last pick on your favorite goon. Chances are you're going to lose anyway, no matter how well prepared you are. So enjoy yourself.
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