Beware the Breakout
Every fall, any number of players are said to be due for "breakthrough" seasons. These seasons do happen - usually to players in their fourth or fifth years, occasionally to exceptional talents at a younger age. But it doesn't happen as often as fantasy owners would like. In the early draft rounds, let someone else take a flyer on the young hotshot who is "primed to break out." Sure, the kid might explode and make your rival look like a genius. But it's a high-risk play. Use top picks for mature players.
Curb Your Optimism
Speaking of breakthroughs, they aren't always as dramatic as people hope. A guy like Eric Staal, who jumped from 31 points to 101 points in a single season, is very rare. For most others, a 10 or 15-point improvement is a big move. The same goes for a player recovering from injury, coming off a great playoff performance, or joining talented new linemates. A step forward is more likely than a huge leap. It's tempting to buy into best-case scenarios, but keep your expectations realistic.
It's the Numbers, Not the Name
The best player is not always the best pick. In the real world, qualities like leadership, toughness, experience are celebrated. But none of that stuff matters in fantasy hockey. The toughest, meanest guy in hockey is a prime catch for any NHL team. But a fantasy owner is often better off picking a small, one-dimensional player who gets lots of power play time.
Beware the September Sensations
While reading a training camp report on your favorite team, you discover that Elmer Windsock, an obscure minor-leaguer, is practicing on the top line! If he keeps the job he could put up 50 points this year! Relax. Almost every team uses training camp to check out minor leaguers and rookies. By all means, keep track of training camp happenings, but don't put too much stock in what you read. Elmer will likely be back in the minors by Hallowe'en.
Know Your Risk Tolerance
Given the choice between the high-risk/high-reward concussion case and the reliable guy who quietly puts up 45 points every year, I'll take Mr. Reliable every time. Maybe you don't agree, and prefer to take more chances. The point is, try to determine how adventurous you're willing to be and stick with it.
Think Stability
The player list is thinning out, the draft is into its third hour, and all those 25-point guys are starting to look the same. Wake up! This is where a fantasy hockey league can be won or lost. If you don't know who to pick, aim for a player in his late-20s or early-30s, playing for the same team and same coach as last season. Veterans who have settled into well-defined roles are a good bet for reliable production year after year.
Bonus Tip
This is a crapshoot, not a science. Do the homework, then relax and enjoy. Have a drink. Eat a chip. Take a couple of guys you enjoy watching. Use your last pick on your favorite goon. Chances are you're going to lose anyway, no matter how well prepared you are. So enjoy yourself.
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