October Trends Can Set the Tone for an NHL Season

It's tempting to dismiss October as the NHL's silly season, a time of unlikely trends that can't possibly continue.

Consider the head-scratching results from the month just ended:

Colorado ruling the Western Conference, while Detroit muddles along in 10th place.

Avs goaltender Craig Anderson (pictured) and Atlanta's Ondrej Pavelec playing like All-Stars, as masked heroes like Tim Thomas in Boston and Steve Mason in Columbus struggle to find the puck.

And check out the names near the top of the scoring race: Anze Kopitar? Patrick Marleau? Dustin Penner?

We've seen this before. Last season at this time, the Rangers were off to their best start ever. That didn't add up to much.

Remember 2007, When the Leafs were one of October's highest-scoring teams? Or 2006, when Maxim Afinogenov challenged for the October scoring lead? You just can't trust that month.

Not so fast.

For every early-season trend that wilts with the first snow, there's another that settles in and holds up until April.

A year ago at this time, the San Jose Sharks were a perfect six-for-six in home games. They stayed on a roll until the season ended, finishing as the only NHL team with under ten losses at home.

Everyone was surprised to see the Red Wings struggle to prevent goals in October of 2008. That didn't change. Goals-against remained an issue all season long.

The Dallas Stars came out of October '08 with a losing record, and goaltender Marty Turco had a poor month. Neither team nor goalie ever recovered.

October also establishes a short list for the scoring title. Recent history says the eventual champ will come from the 10 or 12 names now atop the leader board.

In the long run, teams and players are never as good as they look during hot streaks, and never as bad as they look when everything is going wrong.

So Colorado won't finish first, and Craig Anderson probably won't be a Vezina finalist.

But even if they slow down considerably from here, the Avs will almost surely finish higher in the standings than many of us predicted, and Anderson is in line for a career year.

Meanwhile, goalies like Mason and Thomas face a huge task in recovering from early slumps, and Anze Kopitar is probably on his way to a big season.

And after reading the October tea leaves, even the Red Wings are advising fans to lower expectations.

(Photo: Garrett Ellwood/Getty Images)