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Jamie Fitzpatrick

The Kessel Trade: Taking the Player Over the Picks

By , About.com GuideSeptember 19, 2009

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Phil Kessel finally got his wish to become a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
After a three-month chase, the Leafs finally pulled off a trade to land the 21-year-old Kessel from the division rival Boston Bruins last night.

The price was steep. The Leafs gave up their 2010 and 2011 first-round draft selections as well as their 2010 second-round pick to acquire the speedy Kessel, then promptly signed him to a five-year, $27-million (all currency U.S.) pact.
- Tim Wharnsby, GlobeSports.com

Too steep? That's the debate in Toronto today.

Let's say the Leafs don't make the deal. They have another lousy year, and go to the 2010 draft with a high pick, looking for scoring.

What kind of player do they want?

Probably a guy with tons of speed and skill. Someone who can step into the lineup right away, be a top scorer at a young age and anchor the first line for years to come.

That's what they get right now in making this trade. And without the risk that comes with drafting an 18-year-old and hoping pans out.

Kessel has had health issues, and there's been much talk of an attitude problem.

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But here's one piece of hard evidence in his favor: Phil Kessel scored 36 NHL goals last season at the age of 21.

There's every reason to believe he'll keep scoring for the next 10 or 15 years.

How often does a goal-starved team like Toronto get a chance to grab someone like that? Almost never.

That's well worth a couple of spins at the prospect wheel.

Cynics in Toronto are probably having flashbacks to 1989, and the Tom Kurvers trade, always high on the list of infamous Leaf deals.

If not for that deal, Scott Niedermayer might have been a Leaf.

But you won't find a Scott Niedermayer in every draft.

For the Bruins to win this trade, Toronto has to finish 26th-to-30th overall in at least one of the next two seasons.

Given the history of top-five draft picks, there's a decent chance the Bruins could then use a Toronto pick on a guy who might be as good as Kessel.

It's a plausible scenario, but you wouldn't bet the mortgage on it.

More seasons of 30, 40 or 40-plus goals from Phil Kessel? Based on the current evidence, that's a much safer bet.

(Photo: Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Comments

September 20, 2009 at 1:27 am
(1) Bryon :

Leafs win hands down.

September 20, 2009 at 10:26 am
(2) Jerome :

“Let’s say the Leafs don’t make the deal. They have another lousy year, and go to the 2010 draft with a high pick, looking for scoring.”
Let’s say, after making the deal, the Leafs have a lousy year and go to the draft with no first round pick.
Will Brian Burke be as high on the pedestal then?
Who will be Kessel’s set-up man? Surely not any of the goon squad that Burke has assembled.
What the Leafs need immediately is a Luce-Ramsey type of penalty-killing unit because they will need it.

September 21, 2009 at 10:12 am
(3) hage :

any team would be lucky to get a player like kessel. the leafs clearly need a goal scorer, and that is what kessel does best.

September 21, 2009 at 1:20 pm
(4) Bryon :

The Leafs win the trade. The Leafs are likely to end up in the middle of the NHL pack, and finding a Kessel-like player in that position is nowhere close to a sure-thing. With Kessel, they get exactly the type of player that they would like to draft, but without any of the risk.

June 19, 2010 at 3:20 pm
(5) Dan :

Still think Toronto won

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