A Penguins Dynasty in the Making?

When the Cup was hoisted high above the ice inside the St. Pete Times Forum five years ago, it felt like it would be the start of an era, the ushering in of a Sunbelt dynasty. Richards and Lecavalier were 24 years old, St. Louis was a league scoring champion and MVP, Dan Boyle was on the cusp of becoming a premier defenseman and Khabibulin was the franchise goaltender capable of backstopping future playoff runs.
- Erik Erlendsson, Tampa Tribune, June 7

Are the Penguins poised to start dynasty?
- Mike Prisuta, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, June 14

The prospect of a new NHL dynasty comes up at this time every year. Usually such talk is delusional, as it was in Tampa Bay.

So what are the Penguins chances of sustaining the '09 magic?

Pittsburgh has all its key players under contract for another couple of years or more.

But keeping the team together isn't always a winning strategy.

Consider the case of J.S. Giguere and the Anaheim Ducks. Basking in Stanley Cup glory, Giguere leveraged a huge new contract with Anaheim in the summer of 2007.

Now the Ducks are stuck with a back-up goalie who's much too expensive to trade.

The good news for the Penguins is that they don't have anyone in that position.

Defenseman Rob Scuderi is the only important player eligible for free agency this summer.

Today's NHL isn't about keeping the team together. It's about balancing roster stability with flexibility. On that basis, the Penguins' long-term salary cap situation looks good.

First and foremost: Malkin and Crosby are signed through 2013.

Malkin eats up a lot more cap space starting next season, with his new $9 million salary. But he's obviously worth it.

Also around until 2013 is goaltender Marc Andre Fleury, with an annual cap hit of $5 million. Fleury can be inconsistent, but he's just 24 years old. You have to figure that's a pretty good investment.

Key role players like Maxime Talbot, Tyler Kennedy and Pascal Dupuis are on board for two more years, at affordable salaries.

If they play like they did during the 2009 playoffs, they're a bargain. If one or more should decline, their cheap contracts are trade-able.

One potential trouble spot: 20-year-old Jordan Staal has a four-year contract extension, with a salary topping out at $4.5 million. Staal has to get better to justify that contract.

Chris Kunitz is signed for three more years with a salary climbing to $4 million by 2012. That's a lot for a guy who scored one playoff goal as Crosby's winger.

Much depends on how the defense evolves over the next few years. Right now, Brooks Orpik is the only defenseman signed beyond next season.

That's a good thing, because veterans like Hal Gill and Sergei Gonchar aren't getting any younger.

But rebuilding the blue line will be a challenge for general manager Ray Shero.

In fact, Shero is likely the most important individual in this equation. He still has lots to prove.

The core of this team was in place before he arrived. Does Shero have the management acumen to keep the Pens among the elite?

All told, it's much too early for dynasty talk in Pittsburgh.

The Penguins finished 8th overall in the NHL this season, mostly because of a poor first half.

After that, they were practically unbeatable. So what did we see in the last three months or so? A good team on a terrific hot streak? Or a dominant team finally playing to its potential?

NHL dynasties aren't what they used to be. Nobody's going to win four Cups in a row anymore.

The best we can expect is sustained excellence, with a good shot at three or four Stanley Cups within 10 or 12 years.

By the midway point of next season we'll have a good idea of whether the Penguins are in line for a big decade, or whether they'll slip back to the pack like most recent champions.

(Photo: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)