The Illusion of the One-Goal Win

It's often said that great teams find a way to win close games.

But at this early point in the season, it's hard to tell whether a string of one-goal victories signifies a great team, or just great luck.

The New York Rangers have been in close games all season, winning most. They finished October with the best record in the NHL.

Coach Tom Renney was unimpressed. "We can't mistake what we're doing here for being great," he said last week, after another tight win ran New York's record to 10-2-1.

There were several danger signs, including a dismal power play.

On Saturday, the other shoe finally dropped. "Five other shoes, actually," writes Michael Obernauer of the New York Daily News. The Maple Leafs brought the Rangers back to earth with five third-period goals and a 5-2 win.

Is this the start of an inevitable correction? Or will the Rangers rebound and strengthen their grip on first place?

Other top teams, like Montreal and San Jose, also took advantage of the close ones in October.

Are they great or are they just lucky? We'll find out, because luck rarely lasts. There's a thin line between playing better hockey and simply getting better bounces. But that line usually shows itself by playoff time.

Photo: Nikolai Zherdev is the new star in Manhattan. (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)