Fantasy Hockey Hits and Misses

Despite our reservations about the entire racket, the About.com brain trust can't resist making a few fantasy hockey predictions every September.

Once again this year we present our annual list of players on the rise and players on the slide, plus an evaluation of this year's rookie crop.

The fantasy hockey forecast is more crapshoot than science. Maybe that's why nobody spends much time looking back.

When April rolls around, not many fantasy gurus will write an article that begins, "Time to look back and check the accuracy of my preseason rankings..."

With that in mind, let's expose a few of the hits and misses from last season's About.com fantasy hockey predictions.

Let's start with an easy one. It didn't take much insight to guess that Slava Kozlov (pictured) was in for a fall. A 35-year-old player with a history of inconsistency coming off a career season? "Due to tail off again," we said 12 months ago.

Sure enough, Kozlov tailed off badly, slipping from 80 points in 2006-07 to 41 points in 2007-08.

More perfect hits and embarrassing misses...

The Hits:

• Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals
  The forecast: "A Calder candidate with a good shot at 60-70 points."
  The result: 69 points and a Calder finalist.
• Peter Mueller, Phoenix Coyotes
  The forecast: "...can grab the opportunity to score 50 points."
  The result: 54 points.
• Tom Preissing, Los Angeles Kings
  The forecast: "...could find himself in a fight for quality ice time."
  The result: Ranked a distant fourth in defensemen ice time and dropped 14 points from the previous year.
• Kristian Huselius, Calgary Flames
  The forecast: "...expecting him to sustain his massive 30-point jump over 2005-06 is expecting too much."
  The result: 66 points was a drop of 11 from the previous year.

The Misses

• Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks
  The forecast: "...do not bet on more than 25 points."
  The result: A 72-point, Calder Trophy season.
• Bobby Ryan, Anaheim Ducks
  The forecast: "55 points is within reach."
  The result: Spent the season in the AHL.
• Jonathan Cheechoo, San Jose Sharks
  The forecast: "...can score 80 points."
  The result: A death spiral from 69 points in 2006-07 to 37 points in 2007-08.
• Paul Mara, New York Rangers
  The forecast: "...could surpass his career high of 47 points."
  The result: Even allowing for the 21 games he missed, 17 points was an ugly season.

Enough of the past. We'll stop there and invite you to look ahead to the new season with our 2007-08 Fantasy Hockey Predictions: