Hazarding a Guess About NHL TV Ratings

The NHL's latest television ratings in Canada caused a minor media storm last week:

Hockey Night In Canada ratings are off 19 per cent for the early game and a whopping 33 per cent for the late one compared to last year. TSN's ratings have dropped 18 per cent.

That follows a season that saw CBC ratings soar to their highest level in more than a decade and TSN's set an all-time record.

So the excitement surrounding the return from the lockout produced a one-time bump in viewership a year ago, perhaps from casual fans who usually don’t tune in until playoff time. But compared to 2003-04, HNIC ratings are more or less the same, and TSN numbers are up slightly.

Some assume that the latest dip represents a vote against the “new NHL,” with its salary cap, shootout, increased power plays, etc. But TV ratings only reveal how many people see a show, not why they are watching or why other folks aren’t. The raw numbers don't support any agenda. So a very different assumption is just as plausible:

The growth era of sports television is over. It was a one-time phenomenon - mostly benefiting the NFL, NBA and European soccer - and will not be repeated. Having saturated the country, the NHL has found all the Canadian fans there are to be had. That audience might ebb and flow, but it inevitably returns to baseline. Internal factors, like the rules of the game or NHL marketing efforts, are irrelevant. The audience will change only when the country changes (demographically, culturally, etc.)

In the United States, meanwhile, hockey appears to be where it always is. There are empty seats in the expected cities – places with little hockey culture or where the team has been a loser for too long – and the networks are reporting the usual very modest television ratings. It is, as always, a niche sport. That’s not news anymore.