NHL Lockout on the Verge of Breakthrough or Breakdown

The NHL Players' Association will present its new proposal tomorrow in a meeting with commissioner Gary Bettman and the NHL bargaining team.

According to several media reports, the principles of the new offer are said to include:

• A five-to-ten percent rollback on all player salaries. This won't carry much weight with the owners, as it is a one-time offer that has no effect on future contracts.
• A lower cap on the salaries of "entry level" players, covering the first four years of a player's NHL career (it was three years under the old deal).
• Changes to salary arbitration. The owners hate how the current arbitration system has been used to drive up players' salaries.
• A payroll tax - also called a luxury tax - reportedly beginning at 75 cents on the dollar when a team's payroll exceeds $40 million. There would be stricter penalties for teams exceeding higher thresholds. The tax money would be distributed among low-revenue teams.

Current thinking among media types is that the NHL will take a couple of days to consider the offer - just to keep up appearances - and then reject it outright. In his public statements, Bettman has shown no flexibility, continuing to insist on "cost certainty." That presumably means "hard salary cap," something the NHLPA has repeatedly said it will never agree to.

Either way, the outcome of Thursday's meeting will determine whether there is any hope of a 2004-05 NHL season.