Five Reasons Why Canada Won't Win the World Cup

...and five reasons why Sweden will.

Of the eight teams contesting the 2004 World Cup of Hockey, only the Germans can be considered long shots. Anyone else, on any given night, has the potential to beat the world. But the table is set for the Swedes.

The Canadians Won't Win Because:

1. They Can't Win 'Em All. Canada won the 2002 Olympics and the last two world championships. In an era when half a dozen nations are neck-and-neck in international hockey, that's as close as you get to a dynasty. The field is too good to expect one country to win all the time.
2. Their Luck Will Expire. No team wins a short tournament without getting a few breaks along the way, and Canada has caught its share in recent tournaments. Canada might play great and might be in a position to win. But eventually the luck turns against you.
3. There's No Such Thing as Home Ice Advantage. The U.S. was at home in 2002. Canada lost the '96 World Cup at home. The Czechs blew a great chance to win last spring's world title in Prague. In hockey, the host nation rarely wins. The idea that home ice gives a team some sort of boost is obviously a myth.
4. They're Too Young, especially on defense, where Jay Bouwmeester and Scott Hannan replace Rob Blake and Chris Pronger. Overall, about half of the Canadian players have no experience in best-on-best hockey at the senior level.
5. The Brodeur Factor is Questionable. Goaltender Martin Brodeur is Canada's ace, and brings oodles of big-game experience to the lineup. But he did not look spectacular in last year's NHL playoffs.

The Swedes Will Win Because:

1. Canada Won't (see above).
2. They're Good Enough. The Swedes had the best team at Salt Lake City until their once-in-a-lifetime meltdown against Belarus. They are runners-up in the last two world championships. Forsberg is playing.
3. They're Motivated. Everyone wants to erase visions of the Belarus disaster. They should be burning for a rematch against Canada, the team that beat them in the last two world championship finals.
4. It's Their Time: The Americans are past their prime; too many Russians are staying home; the Finns won't score enough; the Slovaks won't get the goaltending. The Czechs will disappoint. "I don't like this tournament too much," said Jaromir Jagr. We've all seen what he can do when the enthusiasm is lacking.
5. Their Goaltending Will Rise to the Moment. Admittedly, this is a rather broad assumption. But broad assumptions are the lifeblood of the predictions business.

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